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Bulletin on Narcotics Volume LIII, Nos. 1 and 2, 2001 Dynamic drug policy: Understanding and controlling drug epidemics The dynamic character of drug problems J. John Heinz III School of Public Policy and Management, Carnegie Mellon University, Drug Policy Research Center, RAND Corporation, Pittsburgh, United States of America ABSTRACT The author of the present article makes three points.

Firstly, drug-related measures, such as the number of users, have changed rapidly over time, suggesting that they are not merely symptoms of underlying trends in the economy, demographics or other aggregates that change more slowly over time. Secondly, drug markets are subject to a wide range of feedback effects that can induce non-linearity into dynamic behaviour.

Thirdly, there are at least five classes of drug epidemic models that reflect such non-linear dynamic behaviour. Some of those classes tend to be optimistic about the ability of drug control interventions to reduce use; others are pessimistic. It is hoped that the present article and, in particular, the typology, will inform and elevate the debate about drug policy, though it is unlikely to resolve that debate because of the inability to demonstrate empirically which classes of model is (are) more accurate. Introduction The thesis of the present article is that drug problems are dynamic phenomena characterized by non-linearity and feedback. To the extent that this is true, it is important to analyse drug problems with tools that recognize and handle that complexity. Regrettably, most of the literature on drug problems and policies applies linear, static and/or imprecise models.

The present article contains three sections. The first section examines empirical evidence for the thesis that drug problems are dynamic. The next section lists some of the principal sources of non-linearity and feedback in drug systems. The final section offers a typology of five models of drug epidemic.